台灣智庫政策研究系列40《川普2.0下的中國全國兩會觀察》

｜作　　者｜王占璽、王啟逡、王國臣、吳瑟致、林竣達、

林穎佑、馬準威、陳亮智、蕭督圜

｜發 行 人｜吳榮義

｜總 編 輯｜呂曜志

｜執行編輯｜吳瑟致

｜行政編輯｜高家楨

｜編輯助理｜吳柏融

｜出　　版｜財團法人台灣智庫

｜編排印製｜秀威資訊科技股份有限公司

出版日期：2025年4月

ISBN：978-626-98534-7-2

定價：100元 洽購專線：(02)2370-6987

From the Editor in Chief

In early March 2025, China convened the annual “Two Sessions” (the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, CPPCC, and the National People’s Congress, NPC). While these are routine national meetings, this year’s sessions are particularly significant given China’s internal and external dynamics. The policies conveyed during the meetings have attracted considerable international attention. Globally, the landscape has shifted—former U.S. President Donald Trump has officially begun his second term, and the Russia-Ukraine war has entered its third year. Trump’s global and Indo-Pacific strategies will be key factors in shaping China’s foreign policy decisions. Furthermore, 2025 marks the conclusion of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, with preparations underway for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan. How the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) navigates its domestic economic and social challenges will directly impact President Xi Jinping’s “Vision 2035” goals.

The Taiwan Thinktank have long focused on developments in Taiwan’s geopolitical and international landscape, including areas such as geopolitics, global security, cross-strait relations, Chinese affairs, and international trade. And now we would like to face new challenges and opportunities about China’s Two Sessions (NPC and CPPCC) in 2025, we decided to publish the volume and focusing on “The Era of Trump 2.0: China’s NPC and CPPCC in 2025”.

This book invites nine young scholars, including Associate Researcher Chan-Hsi Wang from Division of National Security Research at Institute for National Defense and Security Research , Lecture Chi-Chiun Wang from Department of Law at Aletheia University, Assistant Researcher Guo-Chen Wang from the First Research Division at Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research , Associate Professor Se-Chih Wu from the General Education Center at Taipei University of Marine Technology, Assistant Professor Jiun-Da Lin from Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University , Assistant Professor Ying-Yu Lin from the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, Assistant Professor Chun-Wei Ma from the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, Associate Research Fellow Liang-Chih Evans Chen from Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at Institute for National Defense and Security Research and Tu-Yuan Hsiao, Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, Chinese Culture University.

We expect that these discussions can serve as the theoretical basis for analyzing and engagement among academia, policymakers, media, and industry professionals.

President, Dr. Liu Yau Jr 

總編輯的話

中國在2025年3月初召開全國兩會（全國政協會議、全國人民大會），這是每年例行會舉辦的全國性會議，當然從今年中國的內部、外部情勢來看，兩會舉辦中會傳遞出什麼政策訊息，受到外界的關注。今年全球局勢出現變化，美國總統川普（Donald Trump）正式上任開始他的第二任期，俄烏戰爭也邁入了第三年，川普的全球戰略及印太戰略，會是中國判斷對外政策的重要因素之一；此外，今年又是中國「十四五規劃」的收官之年，緊接著也將提出「十五五規劃」，中共如何因應當前的國內經濟社會困境，都牽動著習近平所提出的「2035遠景目標」。

台灣智庫長期關注台灣與國際形勢的發展，包括地緣政治、全球安全、兩岸關係、中國問題、國際經貿等，都是台灣智庫一直以來研析的重要議題，不只是一個公共政策平台，更邀請各領域的學者專家共同研討、打造跨領域的公共知識場域。台灣智庫在今年3月初舉辦了「習近平極權主義模式與統治思維」研討會，針對「習近平對內的極權控制」、「習近平對外的威權擴張」及「川普的印太戰略及美中台形勢」等議題有深入的研討，有關中共在全國兩會後的政治局勢發展，是當前台灣及全球民主國家共同面對的問題，這也是這本書編著的重點。

本書主題是「川普2.0下的中國全國兩會觀察」，這次邀請國防安全研究院國家安全研究所副研究員王占璽博士、真理大學法律學系兼任講師王啟逡、中華經濟研究院第一研究所助研究院王國臣博士、台北海洋科技大學通識教育中心吳瑟致助理教授、臺灣大學國家發展研究所林竣達助理教授、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所林穎佑助理教授、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所馬準威助理教授、國防安全研究院國防戰略與資源研究所副研究員陳亮智博士及文化大學政治學系蕭督圜兼任助理教授等九位年輕學者，以2025年中國全國兩會為題，分別就中國內部及外部形勢等面向進行分析，希冀與時俱進分享產官學界參考及激盪。

博士

目　次

---

From the Editor in Chief／Liu Yau Jr  005

總編輯的話／呂曜志                                                           008

導論：2025年全國兩會後的中共政治局勢／吳瑟致                013

中國社會重要風險議題與治理／王占璽                                         016

中國兩會經濟政策重點與前瞻／王國臣                                           026

中國人工智慧產業的發展前景／林竣達                                           040

2025中國兩會下的「黨建」觀察／蕭督圜                                     047

2025中國兩會下的軍事現代化與黨軍關係／陳亮智                    054

從中共兩會看軍民融合／林穎佑                                                         059

川普2.0下的中柬德崇扶南運河對習近平的外交價值／王啟逡  065

川普2.0下中國兩會的「一帶一路」戰略觀察／馬準威                071