台灣智庫政策研究系列41《中共軍事與外交行動對台灣的影響》

台灣智庫
Oct 8
5 min read

｜作　　者｜丁樹範、王智盛、王啟逡、巫穎翰、吳瑟致、

林雅鈴、林筱甄、林穎佑、鄭子真

｜發行人｜吳榮義

｜總編輯｜呂曜志

｜執行編輯｜吳瑟致

｜行政編輯｜高家楨

｜編輯助理｜吳柏融

｜出　　版｜財團法人台灣智庫

｜編排印製｜秀威資訊科技股份有限公司

出版日期：2025年9月

ISBN：978-626-98534-8-9

定價：100元洽購專線：(02)2370-6987

From the Editor in Chief

The trajectory of China’s political development under President Xi Jinping has entered a critical phase. With the onset of his third term and the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee, questions inevitably arise: will Xi move smoothly toward a fourth term in 2027, or even establish the foundations for life-long rule? Xi has already delineated his political vision through a set of key performance indicators (KPIs). Among these, the year 2027—marking the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)—stands out as a milestone. The pursuit of a “modernized military” has been enshrined as one of the central pillars of “Chinese-style modernization,” and its realization will serve as a demonstration of Xi’s enduring belief that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Such military modernization projects carry dual meanings: they consolidate regime security domestically, while projecting national strength externally. For the Indo-Pacific and the global community at large, this trajectory introduces profound uncertainties; for Taiwan, the implications are especially direct and consequential.

Since its founding, Taiwan Thinktank has been committed to the study of Taiwan’s position in the shifting international landscape. Our research has spanned critical issues of geopolitics, global security, cross-strait relations, China’s internal and external dynamics, and international political economy. Beyond its role as a policy research platform, the Thinktank strives to create a cross-disciplinary arena of public knowledge, inviting dialogue and debate among scholars, experts, and practitioners across diverse fields. In September of this year, Taiwan Thinktank convened the symposium “The PLA Rocket Force, Navy, and Air Force Threats to Taiwan and Possible Responses.” The conference provided a timely and in-depth assessment of the evolving challenges posed by China’s military pressure on Taiwan. It coincided with Beijing’s September 3rd military parade marking the 80th anniversary of its “Victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan.” That spectacle was designed not only as a display of China’s advancing military capabilities but also as a performative act of narrative construction, aimed at shaping the global discourse on its rise. Together, these developments highlight both the urgency and the scholarly value of the present volume.

This book, entitled “The Impact of the CCP’s Military and Diplomatic Actions on Taiwan,” assembles the insights of nine distinguished contributors: Professor Shu-fan Ting of the Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, National Chengchi University; Professor Tzu-chen Cheng of the Department of Political Science, Chinese Culture University; Assistant Professor Chih-sheng Wang of the Department of Border Police, Central Police University; Lecturer Chi-tsun Wang of the Center for General Education, Taipei University of Marine Technology; Associate Research Fellow Ya-ling Lin of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research; Assistant Professor Hsiao-chen Lin of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University; Associate Professor Ying-yu Lin of the same institute; Assistant Professor Ying-han Wu, also of Tamkang University; and Assistant Professor Se-chih Wu of the Center for General Education, Taipei University of Marine Technology.

Their contributions collectively examine the multifaceted implications of China’s internal political logic and external strategic maneuvers. By situating Taiwan at the nexus of these dynamics, the volume seeks not only to provide timely analysis but also to stimulate further intellectual exchange between academia, policymaking circles, and broader civil society. It is our hope that this book will serve as a resource for understanding the evolving challenges of China’s military and diplomatic posture, while also offering pathways for informed discussion and policy deliberation in Taiwan and beyond.

President, Dr. Liu Yau Jr

總編輯的話

正值中國國家主席習近平的第三任期，隨著中共二十大四中全會舉行，他是否會在2027年順勢坐穩第四個任期，或是終身執政？習近平已擘劃了掌權的KPI；尤其是2027年是解放軍「建軍百年」之際，打造「現代化軍隊」是「中國式現代化」的重要指標之一，當然也是習近平展現「槍桿子出政權」的能耐。中共的軍事部署有著內政延伸的意涵，也是對外國家實力的表現，而這對於印太地區的周邊國家，甚至是全球發展來說，無疑帶來更多不穩定的變數，當然對台灣來說，更是深受中共軍事及外交作為影響。

台灣智庫長期關注台灣與國際形勢的發展，包括地緣政治、全球安全、兩岸關係、中國問題、國際經貿等，都是台灣智庫一直以來研析的重要議題，不只是一個公共政策平台，更邀請各領域的學者專家共同研討、打造跨領域的公共知識場域。台灣智庫在今年9月初舉辦了「中國解放軍火箭軍及海空軍對台威脅與因應」研討會，針對中國對台軍事威脅有深入的研討，再加上中共於今年9月3日舉行「對日抗戰勝利80週年」的閱兵活動，中共藉此展示軍事實力，同時企圖對外「全球敘事」的詮釋，這突顯本書編著的重要性。

本書主題是「中共軍事與外交行動對台灣的影響」，這次邀請政治大學東亞研究所教授丁樹範、文化大學政治系教授鄭子真、中央警察大學國境警察學系助理教授王智盛、台北海洋科技大學通識教育中心講師王啟逡、國防安全研究院國家安全所副研究員林雅鈴、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所助理教授林筱甄、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所副教授林穎佑、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所助理教授巫穎翰、台北海洋科技大學通識中心助理教授吳瑟致等九位學者，分別就中國內部及外部形勢等面向進行分析，希冀與時俱進分享產官學界參考及激盪。

目　次

From the Editor in Chief／Liu Yau Jr 005

總編輯的話／呂曜志 008

從小巨人計畫到新型舉國體制：中國軍民融合創新之路／丁樹範 013

評析中共舉辦「九三大閱兵」與強化「全球敘事」／吳瑟致 019

中國太空軍事發展之評析：從技術支援到戰略擴張／鄭子真 024

習近平新時代中國武警制度的深化重塑與前沿挑戰／王智盛 031

中國海警的新角色任務及對台灣之危害／王啟逡 038

近期中國國防預算分析與對印太影響／林雅鈴 044

槓桿與底線：川普南亞戰略校準下的美印談判動向／林筱甄 052

從香格里拉對話看中共軍事外交／林穎佑 060

走出去的國家代理人？中共私營安全承包商發展與限制／巫穎翰 066